Y2k Computer Problem Essays - Calendars, Software Bugs, COBOL

Y2k Computer Problem The year 2000 is just around the corner. As some people look forward to a new and brighter millenium, others prophesize about the Second Coming, or the apocalypse. While these prophecies may be ignored by many, they might not be too far off base. The year 2000 may not bring an end to the physical world; however, it may cause great havoc to the worlds computing industry. The year 2000 problem (or Y2K as it is often referred to) is not really a bug or virus, but is a computer industry mistake. Personal computers (PCs), mainframes, and software are not designed or programmed to compute a future year ending in double zeros (00). This is going to be a costly fix for the industry to absorb. In fact, Mike Elgan, editor of Windows Magazine, says, . . . the problem could cost businesses a total of $600 billion to remedy(Experts Elgan). Y2K has become a two-part problem. One is the inability of the computer to adapt to the MM/DD/YY issue, while the second problem is the unwillingness of many people to see the impact it will have. Most IS (information system) specialists are either unconcerned or unprepared. In order to fix the year 2000 computer problem and its impact, one must fully understand what this problem is. Back in the 1960s, programmers decided to store the year of dates as two digits instead of four in order to save much needed space and cut costs. So the year 1998 would be stored as 98 and 2000 will be stored as 00. These two-digit dates will be on millions of files used as input for millions of applications. This two-digit date affects data manipulation, mainly subtractions and comparisons (Doomsday Jager). For instance, Joe was born in 1957. If the computer was asked to calculate how old Joe is today, it subtracts 57 from 98 and reports that he is 41. This calculation is correct. In the year 2000 however, the computer will subtract 57 from 00 and say that he is -57 years old. Many owners of home computers feel this bug wont affect their personal computer but its expected that up to 80% of all personal PCs will fail when the year 2000 arrives. More than 80,000,000 PCs will be shut down December 31, 1999 with no problems as workers leave their office for the weekend. However, on January 1, 2000, some 80,000,000 PCs will fail as systems are turned on and booted up (Believe Jager). Fixing the problem seems to be difficult a difficult task, as all applications from spreadsheets to email will be affected. Should an individual replace his current computer with one that is Year 2000 compatible or simply replace the RTC (Real Time Clock), the BIOS, or the OS? Even if the hardware problem is fixed is all the software used may not be adequate to make the transition. The answers to these questions and others like these cannot be answered with a simple yes or no. For one thing, the leading experts in the computer world cannot agree that there is even a problem, let alone discuss the extent to which it will impact society and the business world. CNN correspondent Jed Duvall illustrates another possible problem scenario. Suppose someone on the East Coast, at 2 minutes after midnight in New York City on January 1, 2000 decides to make a call to a friend in California, where it is still 1999 because of the time zone difference. With the current configurations in the phone companys computers, the New Yorker will be billed from 00 to 99, a phone call lasting for 99 years (Duvall). Say a deposit of $100 was made into a savings account that pays 5% interest annually. The following year the depositor decides to close the account. The bank computer figures the $100 was there for one year at 5% interest, yielding $105, simple enough. What happens though, if the money is not withdrawn before the year 2000? The computer will re-do the calculation exactly the same way. The money was in the bank from '95 to '00. That's '00 minus '95, which equals a negative 95 (-95). That's -95 years at 5% interest. That is